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Black Friday kicked off the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, and the latest in-store traffic and promotional insights suggest a mixed start to the popular spending period. U.S. consumers spent a record $9.8 billion Friday, up 7.5% year over year, according to the latest data from Adobe Analytics. Meanwhile, the annual online shopping event known as Cyber Monday is slated to bring in between $12 billion and $12.4 billion, Adobe estimates. Despite the seeming rush to shop, this Black Friday ushered in moderately higher promotions over last year and mixed in-store traffic, according to some Wall Street analysts. “These initial reads suggest the season has been lackluster so far,” said UBS analyst Michael Lasser in a Monday note to clients. “While it’s early, we think it’s best to have muted expectations for the rest of the holiday. This period is likely to include ups and downs.” As the scramble to buy up toys, gaming devices and new gadgets for the impending holidays gains steam, analysts highlighted some of the season’s early winners and losers — and what to look out for with roughly a month left to Christmas. Black Friday winners Value-focused shopping destinations seemed to win big Friday, based on annual store checks from a slew of Wall Street shops. Five Below , Ollie’s Bargain Outlet and Walmart showed strong Black Friday traffic, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Bradley Thomas, with Ollie’s showing the greatest strength, particularly within toys, small appliances and consumer electronics. On the traffic front, Target showed some sluggishness, with most consumers piling up on essentials versus discretionary items, he noted. Thomas attributed some of that slowness to the early Black Friday sales. Kohl’s also seemed to win big this Black Friday with improved line counts, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Alex Straton called the department store a “clear leader,” noting signs that new management changes are likely underway. Lululemon preserved as a leading sportswear winner and brand to shop at this year. Multiple Wall Street firms noted snaking lines and limited discounts at the athleisure company. Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane also noted that Lululemon, along with Dick’s Sporting Goods , Bath & Body Works and Best Buy , showed a “little stronger than average” traffic. Along with Bath & Body Works, beauty retailers such as Ulta Beauty scored big this Black Friday, with JPMorgan’s Matthew Boss calling it a “leading category” within department stores. Piper Sandler’s Korinne Wolfmeyer noted a slight uptick in traffic at both Ulta and Sephora despite declines at other retailers. “We’re seeing mass skincare and makeup as increasingly better positioned here, but we also see areas of exception like in fragrance,” she wrote. The Black Friday shopping extravaganza also ushered in some bullish sentiment toward Shopify . The Canadian e-commerce company seemed to triumph as a dominant player, hitting $4.1 billion in sales and showing 22% growth from a year ago. That should signal upside to merchandise value growth expectations for the fourth quarter in the high teens, according to Morgan Stanley’s Keith Weiss, against a backdrop of what appears to be resilient e-commerce spending. Deutsche Bank’s Bhavin Shah also highlighted Shopify’s “impressive” Black Friday growth as a sign of some upside ahead to fourth-quarter expectations. That said, investors shouldn’t get too excited given that it represents one day, he noted. Black Friday losers Not every popular retailer seemed to kick off the holiday shopping period on a strong note. Nordstrom , for example, showed similar line counts even with higher discounts, which could signal that “mgmt.’s revised go-forward strategy is doing little to impact the P & L, as evidenced by still-challenged 3Q fundamentals,” Straton wrote. Straton also highlighted American Eagle Outfitters as a laggard that saw average line counts decline about 30% from last year. While Lululemon drove strong in-store traffic, helped in part by advertising use in Black Friday markdowns, Nike and Under Armour both showed higher promotions, said Piper Sandler’s Abbie Zvejnieks. “Similar to last year, select premium brands within our coverage including On Running, HOKA, UGG, and lululemon were able to maintain pricing over the weekend while we saw the highest promotions within private label athletic apparel and footwear with discounts often 50% off or higher,” she said.
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