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Bank of America has come up with unexpected investment outcomes for 2024, which it says could be the basis for some — yet potentially profitable — “angry trades.” Based on the bank’s monthly Global Fund Manager Survey, strategist Michael Hartnett created a list of “contrarian” outcomes and hedging opportunities. Investors’ base case for 2024 calls for continued outperformance of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, an economic soft landing, weaker inflation, lower rates, sliding bond yields and a slumping U.S. dollar. Bank of America’s ‘Trades of the Unexpected’ Short Nasdaq-100 Long REITs Short oil Long TIPs The opposite of institutional investors’ assumptions — the “unexpected” scenarios — are also some of the most painful possible outcomes in 2024, Hartnett noted. In the event that the Magnificent Seven group of leading technology stocks end up suddenly underperforming the rest of the stock market, investors could short the Nasdaq-100, Hartnett said. “Long large cap tech” was the single-largest, crowded trade in the latest fund manager survey by the bank. As of now, high-quality assets are expected to outperform in 2024, with only 6% of fund managers predicting otherwise, said Hartnett. But if leveraged companies do manage to outperform, the strategist said to go long real estate investment trusts (REITs), which have high leverage ratios. REITs have struggled in 2023 as commercial real estate has come under pressure from high interest rates and offices have remained half empty post-Covid. Another seemingly unlikely scenario calls for an improved geopolitical environment. Close to 90% of surveyed fund managers see elevated geopolitical risks in the coming year. For a contrarian outcome, Harnett says to trade as if oil prices will move lower still by shorting crude. Investors can also go against the tide through purchases of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, which would guard against inflation reversing the current down trend. Only 6% of fund managers are predicting inflation moves higher next year, according to BofA. TIP 3M mountain Largest TIPs ETF past threee months. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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